View: Brent remains a m/t bear play despite the seemingly hot geopolitical backdrop
It has been difficult to flick through any weekend media without stumbling across detailed editorials on the prospects for a pre-emptive Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear programme in October, ahead of the US Presidential election. The logic of this timeframe centres on what PM Netanyahu’s camp allegedly feel is the final opportunity to mount a unilateral strike against increasingly hardened Iranian targets, feeling that a second term Obama would be far more likely to resist military intervention that by then only the US would have the firepower to execute. This tension has of course been on the markets mind for many months, even years, with a decent proportion of the rise in oil prices post Arab-spring linked to geopolitical risks in the region which Iran is the very centre of.
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