View: Persist with selling EUR/USD rallies, current move looks stretched, timing the risk
We’ve seen a solid bounce in EUR/USD after a brief penetration of the 1.3000 level this morning, maintaining immediate bullish momentum. While there are doubts surrounding the execution of the ECB’s OMT plan as Spain looks to avoid a formal bailout and the oversight that would accompany this, which is a prerequisite for any central bank support, the onset of QE3 followed by BoJ easing has refocused attention on the influence of central banks on currencies. This is naturally bad for the dollar with the Fed clearly having the most robust/effective track record for keeping the Greenback weak in contrast to Europe where a strong currency is still seen as a sign of confidence in the project rather than a helpful adjustment mechanism. The less said about the Bank of Japan’s ability to guide the JPY weaker the better.
Full report below…
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